Trade tensions are once again simmering across North America and Asia as the United States faces mounting pressure from key partners over its stance on aluminium and steel imports. In July 2025, two major developments unfolded, Canada hinted at revising its retaliatory tariffs on US metals, while India drew sharp criticism from Washington after threatening countermeasures of its own. These parallel episodes underscore the fragility of global trade relations as countries navigate protectionist policies, shifting alliances, and the rules of the World Trade Organisation.

 In July 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney signalled a possible revision of the existing 25 per cent retaliatory tariff on US aluminium and steel imports. The proposed change hinges on the outcome of current trade negotiations between the two countries. If a resolution isn’t reached within 30 days, Canada will reassess its tariff strategy. On the other hand, in a firm response to India’s earlier warning of retaliatory tariffs over potential U.S. duty hikes on aluminium, steel, and automobile imports, Washington has pushed back. On July 17, 2025, the United States informed the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that India lacks any “legal basis” to impose such retaliation under safeguard provisions.

National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO) attracted market attention on July 22, 2025, with its shares climbing 2.07 per cent to close at INR 192 (USD 2.23). The stock’s upward movement reflects its ongoing positive momentum, posting a monthly gain of 4.23 per cent outperforming the BSE Metal index, which rose 3.94 per cent, and significantly ahead of the SENSEX, which dipped by 0.59 per cent during the same period.

Maan Aluminium, a producer and trader of aluminium profiles, has experienced a notable rebound in its stock price, climbing to INR 122.95 (USD 1.43) as of July 21, 2025. This marks a strong recovery from earlier lows seen earlier this year. The stock had faced a turbulent period starting in late February, when it traded at INR 97.50 (USD 1.12) on February 25.

With the Trump administration set to implement 25 per cent tariffs on Japanese imports including vehicles, steel, and aluminium starting August 1, Japan’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are bracing for impact. Among them is Mitsuwa Electric, a 92-year-old precision parts manufacturer based in Tokyo and led by Yuji Miyazaki. Despite escalating trade tensions, Miyazaki remains hopeful that his company will navigate the challenges ahead.

The future of Mozambique’s Mozal Aluminium Smelter is increasingly uncertain, as South32 prepares to write down the value of its majority stake amid ongoing power supply challenges. After six years of failed negotiations for a new electricity deal, concerns are mounting over the long-term viability of the operation.

Amid global market uncertainty, Norway’s Norsk Hydro demonstrated resilience in its fiscal Q2 2025 performance, bolstered by strong aluminium and energy prices. The company reported a 33.41 per cent year-on-year rise in adjusted EBITDA, climbing to NOK 7,790 million from NOK 5,839 million. However, beyond the headline figures lies a more complex story one that highlights both the strengths driving Hydro forward and the underlying challenges influencing its strategic direction.

RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained its OVERWEIGHT stance on the Basic Materials sector, naming Press Metal Aluminium Holdings (PMAH) as its top pick, backed by strengthening fundamentals in the aluminium smelting industry.

South32, a prominent global mining and metals company, has reported that two of its aluminium smelters outperformed expectations in FY25. Brazil Aluminium exceeded its production target by 6 per cent, while Mozal Aluminium surpassed its goal by 1 per cent—signalling robust operational execution and ongoing efficiency gains. So, what’s driving this impressive surge in aluminium output?

LME aluminium

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw notable gains across the board. Both the LME aluminium cash bid price and the official settlement price rose by USD 34.50 per tonne, or 1.34 per cent, reaching USD 2,591 and USD 2,591.50 per tonne, respectively.

On July 21, the LME aluminium cash bid price jumped 2.22 per cent to USD 2,648.50 per tonne, up from USD 2,591 per tonne on July 18. The cash offer price also saw a similar increase, rising to USD 2,649 per tonne from USD 2,591.50 per tonne.

On Tuesday, July 22, both LME aluminium cash bid price and LME aluminium official settlement price moved down by USD 10.5 per tonne or 0.39 per cent to settle at USD 2,638 per tonne and USD 2,638.50 per tonne.

The LME aluminium cash bid price edged up by 0.19 per cent on July 23, reaching USD 2,643 per tonne from USD 2,638 per tonne the day before. Similarly, the cash offer price rose 0.25 per cent to USD 2,645 per tonne, compared to USD 2,638.50 per tonne on July 22.

Under the bauxite segment

India’s bauxite import landscape is undergoing a major shift in 2025, with Ghana emerging as a new key supplier amid a sharp decline in exports from Guinea. Data from the Ministry of Commerce reveals that India imported just 0.31 million tonnes of bauxite in Q1 2025 a steep 76 per cent drop from 1.28 million tonnes during the same period last year. This dramatic fall highlights not only external supply disruptions but also internal adjustments within India’s aluminium sector.

Launched in 2018, the Bon Ami Project in Guinea has successfully integrated high-capacity Telestack barge loading systems to handle the challenging demands of bauxite exports. Designed for fast-track construction, the project began production in Q2 2024, marking a key milestone in its development.

Australian mining company Metro Mining has reported strong performance for Q2 FY2025, achieving record bauxite shipments alongside solid gains in revenue and margins. Total shipment volume rose 19 per cent year-on-year, driven by a 41 per cent increase in FOB net unit revenue to USD 72 per tonne. This growth reflects the company’s strengthening operational performance at its flagship Bauxite Hills mine, despite market headwinds and challenging weather conditions.

Guinea’s bauxite exports continued their upward trajectory in Q2 2025, pushing total exports for the first half of the year to 99.8 million tonnes. This surge was largely fuelled by robust demand from China, which outweighed the effects of ongoing regulatory constraints. Compared to H1 2024, the export volume rose by an impressive 36 per cent, up from 73.4 million tonnes.

Under the alumina segment

The recent suspension of Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina from the ex-ante energy market on July 24, 2025, has spotlighted the growing tension between geopolitical obligations and industrial continuity. As Europe’s largest alumina refinery, the plant remains operational for now even as its parent company, Russian-owned Rusal, faces mounting pressure from sanctions linked to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The European Commission has officially imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on fused alumina imports from China, aiming to shield Europe’s domestic industry from market distortions. Adopted on July 17, 2025, Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1456 sends a clear message to China’s state-supported industrial powerhouse: unfair trade practices will no longer be tolerated.