AL Circle Blog

So far, we’ve covered borrowing and are now getting into lending. Remember this simple rule: you’re lending when you sell the nearby contract and buy the forward one. And when you buy the nearby and sell the forward, that’s borrowing. Example of Lending Let’s look at an example. Suppose I’m long in March, but I […]

As we dive into another week, let’s continue our discussion on carry trades. So far, we’ve explored the borrowing side in detail, but now it’s time to shine the spotlight on lending, the second integral part of this family. To recap, borrowing in carry trades involves buying a futures contract for the nearest date while […]

In our last discussion, we explored the concept of lending and walked through an example of selling March and buying April. This time, let’s dive into what happens when the market is in contango, a situation where prices for future contracts are higher than nearby prices. What is Contango? Simply put, contango occurs when the […]

So, what happens when you borrow in backwardation? Well, the rule is simple—you lose money. Why? Because in a backwardation curve, the nearby price is higher than the future price. That’s just how the market moves! Let’s break it down: If you borrow to postpone a short, say from April to May, April’s price is […]

In our previous discussion, we explored the concept of borrowing carry trades to anticipate long positions. Let’s dive deeper into how borrowing works in a contango market and why it often leads to profit. Borrowing and Long Positions in Contango Imagine this scenario: we’re holding a long position for April but need to shift it […]

In our last discussion, we explored how borrowing is used to postpone a short position, with an example of buying April and selling June. When the market was in contango, we earned profits, and during backwardation, the strategy still worked in our favor. But when the conditions were unfavorable, we faced losses. Today, let’s shift […]

In our previous session, we explored how borrowing works in a contango market. Let’s quickly recap and then shift our focus to backwardation. Contango Recap: In a contango scenario, the price of a future contract for a later date is higher than the price for a nearer date. Here’s how it works: Borrowing in Contango: […]

In trading, understanding the concept of borrowing and its connection to contango can open doors to significant profit opportunities. Let’s break it down. What is Borrowing? Borrowing involves buying a commodity or asset for a near-term date and selling it for a further date. For instance, if you’re short in April and want to move […]

Carry trades are a key strategy in commodity trading, and today, we’re diving into the concept of borrowing. Let’s break it down with an example. Imagine you’re a speculator, and you’ve taken a short position for April. Now, you realize you need to move this position to June. Can you just call your broker and […]

As we step into 2025, let’s explore a fascinating shift in the aluminium market: how a typical contango can transform into backwardation. Contango in Aluminium: In a normal aluminium market, the three-month price is historically higher than the cash price—a classic contango. This reflects costs like storage, insurance, and interest. However, this equilibrium can shift […]