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Aluminium Industry Trend & Analysis, Technology Review, Event Rundown and Much More …

AL Circle

Upstream weekly: India to hit back with $3.8B retaliatory tariffs on US goods amidst aluminium

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The ongoing trade dynamics between the United States and India have taken a critical turn amid discussions over a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). India has intensified its retaliatory measures in response to the US decision to increase import tariffs on aluminium and steel from 25 per cent to 50 per cent on June 3, 2025. On the other hand, Donald Trump had further widened the tariff net including seven additional countries. However the interesting part is that aluminium has been spared from the latest round of tariffs – Read to know why.

Primary aluminium inventories registered with the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued their upward trajectory in June, climbing to 338,000 tonnes from 321,850 tonnes in May and 250,875 tonnes in April. This consistent rise in stock levels has been primarily fuelled by a substantial inflow of Indian-origin aluminium into LME warehouses. Click here to know more.

In a setback for Britain’s steel and aluminium exporters, the UK has missed the July 9 deadline to secure an agreement with the United States on lifting the punitive tariffs originally imposed by the Trump administration in 2018. The collapse of negotiations threatens to extend a trade dispute that many had hoped would be settled by now, leaving British metal producers at a disadvantage and increasingly frustrated. Click here to know more.

The surge in US aluminium imports during the first quarter of 2025, both quarterly and annually, comes as no surprise and here’s why. President Trump’s February 10 proclamation of steep tariffs on aluminium and steel, set to take effect from March 12, triggered a wave of anticipatory buying. In response, US importers raced to stockpile metal ahead of the tariff deadline, fuelling a temporary import boom. Click here to know more.

In a setback for Britain’s steel and aluminium exporters, the UK has missed the July 9 deadline to reach an agreement with the United States on the continuation of punitive tariffs originally imposed by the Trump administration in 2018. The failure to conclude talks threatens to prolong a trade dispute that many had expected to be resolved by now, leaving British metal producers disadvantaged and increasingly frustrated. Click here to know more.

The United States is on track to amass up to USD 300 billion in tariff revenue by the end of 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced, underscoring the magnitude of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade agenda. During a White House Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Bessent revealed that the US has already collected around USD 100 billion in tariff income this year, with revenues surging as a result of broad new import duties introduced in the second quarter. Click here to know more.

The countdown is almost complete! Just one day to go for the grand opening of the 20th ALUMINIUM CHINA, Asia’s premier trade show and B2B platform for the aluminium industry. From July 9th to 11th at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre, the event will bring together 600+ exhibitors and over 29,000 trade visitors and delegations. More than just a tradeshow, ALUMINIUM CHINA is a dynamic hub of opportunities and innovations, uniting the global aluminium community like never before. Click here to know more.

All eyes are now on the trade talks between India and the United States that began on June 26. The stakes are high not for a comprehensive trade deal, but for an interim agreement that could ease rising tariff tensions. Time is running out, with July 9 marking the end of the 90-day suspension of Donald Trump’s retaliatory 26 per cent aluminium tariffs announced on April 2. Click here to know more.

Citi has resumed coverage of Alcoa Corporation with a buy rating and a price target of USD 42, citing improving aluminium market conditions and the company’s steady operational performance. With the stock currently trading at USD 29.81, Citi considers it undervalued, based on its projection of USD 1.9 billion in mid-cycle EBITDA equating to roughly 5x earnings at mid-cycle and 6x at spot prices.

Cambodia attracted an impressive $5.8 billion in fixed-asset investments during the first half of 2025, reflecting a remarkable 77 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, according to the Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC). Between January and June, the country approved 373 investment projects nearly double the 190 projects cleared in the same period of 2024 paving the way for the creation of approximately 255,000 new jobs. Click here to read more.

Under the bauxite segment

In April 2025, India’s bauxite production saw a year-on-year rise of 13.9 per cent, increasing from 1.87 million tonnes to 2.13 million tonnes. For the full fiscal year 2024-25, the country produced a total of 24.7 million tonnes of bauxite, cementing its position as the world’s fifth-largest producer after Guinea, Australia, China, and Brazil. This growth highlights India’s strengthening role in the global bauxite supply chain amid rising demand from the aluminium and allied industries.

The Government of the Republic of Guinea has revoked its mining agreement with Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), following the suspension of the company’s bauxite exports and mining activities. This move aligns with Guinea’s wider strategy to derive greater economic value from its mineral wealth by mandating that mining companies establish local alumina refineries.

ABx Group is swiftly transforming from a pure-play bauxite explorer into a diversified minerals and technology enterprise, focusing on three core growth areas: bauxite mining, aluminium fluoride production, and rare earths recovery. This evolution is driven by global supply chain disruptions and the rising demand for critical minerals, unlocking fresh commercial opportunities for the Australia-based company.

Metro Mining Ltd an Australian bauxite producer, is currently trading at AUD 0.056 per share (as of May 26, 2025). This represents a significant discount to the consensus analyst target of AUD 0.17, suggesting a potential upside of 209 per cent, according to AInvest data. Shaw & Partners, which has been tracking the company since 2023, continues to hold a ‘Moderate Buy’ rating, reaffirmed most recently in February 2025.

Western Yilgarn Limited has announced an inferred Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) under the JORC 2012 guidelines for its Cardea 3 Bauxite Project. The new estimate adds approximately 16.57 million tonnes to the existing bauxite resource base, which now stands at 205 million tonnes.

Under the alumina segment

An environmental group based in Clare is urging the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review the potential ecological impact of a new development on the Shannon Estuary. The call comes after the EPA granted Aughinish Alumina a new licence to expand its dredging operations near Foynes Port, allowing dredged material to be deposited at a newly designated site close to Foynes Island.

Gardaí and army bomb disposal teams are investigating after a suspected device was safely neutralised near the Aughinish Alumina plant in County Limerick. Discovered yesterday afternoon near an oil tank at the site, the device triggered a large-scale operation involving the Defence Forces’ Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) unit. Controlled detonations were conducted to disable key components from gas cylinders, allowing investigators to preserve crucial forensic evidence.

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